The NCOF Partners are:
Storm Surge Modelling
Link here to POL's NTSLF Site, including live storm surge model forecasts
Contents
Overview
The North Sea storm surge of 1953 caused disastrous flooding which led to pioneering developments in numerical modelling. Storm surges are particularly hazardous when high sea levels caused by winds and atmospheric pressure combine with high tides and surface waves (more information about the 1953 event and storm surges is available from the Met Office web site).
Models for forecasting storm surges are developed and run on behalf of the Environment Agency through a collaboration between NCOF scientists at Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory (POL) and the Met Office. They have been run routinely since 1978, and are presently operated four times daily forecasting at a 15 minute out to 36 hours.
Output from the storm surge models and tide gauges maintained by POL's National Tidal and Sea Level Facitlity (NTSLF) are used by the Met Office Storm Tide Forecasting Service (STFS) coastal flood warning service, which provides information and alerts to the Environment Agency and Scottish Environmental Protection Agency.
The service provides the crucial warnings needed to protect coastal communities from the threat of flooding, as well as aiding in operational decisions such as when it will be necessary to close the Thames Barrier.
Model Configurations
A suite of storm surge models cover the north west European continental shelf and UK coastline, and comprises:
- a north west European continental shelf model with a horizontal resolution of 12 km
- a 1.2 km resolution nested model for the Bristol Channel
- a 1.2 km resolution nested model for the South Coast.
Inputs and Outputs
The storm surge models describe the effects of both tide and meteorological forcing on coastal seas. Input model forcing therefore comrpises:
- tidal harmonic constituents
- sea-level pressure
- 10m (near surface) wind field.
Each model forecast comprises a 'tide only' and 'fully forced' run, in order that the surge component can be separated from the model tide and applied relative to harmonic forecasts for local ports of reference. Model output consists of:
- tide sea surface elevation (referenced to mean sea level)
- surge sea surface elevation (referenced to mean sea level)
- tide current speed and direction (depth averaged)
- surge current speed and direction (depth averaged) .
Further Information
Further details, information and annual reports are available on the Storm Surge model pages of POL's National Tidal and Sea Level Facility (NTSLF) website.
(Last Updated: 11-02-2008)